Trade Notes - JGS, SMPH, B2 Gold

PH stock market ekes out marginal gain amid geopolitical tension in Ukraine

Fig. 1 My Portfolio
courtesy of COLFinancial

Meralco profit inches up on higher demand, operational efficiences

MER cash dividend @ 6.45/sh, ex-date on April 10

PCOMP

Closing today suggests correction maybe finished already. I am not sure if there is already a change of hands between net foreign selling vs net foreign buying (don't know where to look). This will give us hint on entry.  And looking at top 10 actively traded are the conglomerates, in particular JGS and SMPH that almost buoyed up our market past again 6400. 

What's happening and what's new? I don't know but let's take a look on their charts.

Fig. 2 Top 10
courtesy of COLFinancial

JGS 

What will be its new high? 60? Weekly chart also looks good. MACD is again rising. 

At the start of this year, I was keen on getting my hands full on this one. Wayback 38 levels, I was not able to get onboard and just watched this as it went to its all time high. Now, still cannot enter as I am heavy invested on MVP stocks, TEL and MER (also PX). Goodluck to holders, I still have my eyes on this one.

SMPH

Strong support at 14.5. Is breakout near? Weekly signals a buy. Although laggard, buy now while it is cheap. Recommended for long termers. (Activity today indicates much interest on SMPH, we shall watch out)

Weekly B2 Gold Chart courtesy of Stockcharts.com

B2Gold Given New C$5.00 Price Target at CIBC (BTO)

Canada Stocks to Watch: Athabasca Oil, Transat, B2Gold

While daily chart is due for a correction, I'll focus on the weekly chart. With the above news of C$5 valuation, B2 gold is very bullish for 2 straight months now. I'll be watching closely the formation of Golden Cross along with MACD. MACD still rising but histo seems flat. Volume, volume, volume, vollish hehe. (cross fingers this will continue, hit 5 come April due date!). Gold price please break 1400.

News:

Biz Buzz

Investors await Fed move

--> Spurs 50-16, 15th consecutive 50-win season. Can we have our 5th championship this year?

--> San Mig Coffee drubbed Ginebra last night. James May had a 29-29 outing plus enough offensive effort from locals special mention to ever improving Ian Sangalang.

--> Back to site, hello problems na naman... 

Trade Notes

PH stock market slips below 6,400-mark on profit taking

No available budget but here are my picks: (during market pullback)

Based on Weekly + Daily

RCB

FPH

Based on Weekly

SM (reversal)

EEI

EW

JGS (double top breakout)

LRI (reversal)

PX (strong support at 8.6)

PXP (watch MACD)

GERI (kung nakita ang reversal sa weekly nakasakay pa tayo dito)

Based on Daily

BPI (gapdown, buy when bounce)

AT (buy when bounce)

COCKTALES | Long-time Ver companion Edna Camcam foils ejectment from her North Forbes home

DENR: Philex should settle P280-M penalties before it can normalize Padcal ops
B2gold Corp (BTO:Toronto)
For other B2 News

--> MER gained 2.33%, will other traders sell on Monday?

--> Done with signing Loan Documents, my pad is within reach, ipon ipon pa

Trade Notes

Profit taking pulls down PH stock market for a second day

Here is my take.

Fig. 1 PSEi Daily courtesy of COLFinancial

Daily indicates pullback reaction because of overbought levels. Expect continued selling until early next week.

Fig. 2 PSEi Weekly courtesy of COLFinancial

Weekly shows resistance at 50 SMA but MACD still rising. RSI however pointing down. The change in hands form sellers to buyers may give hint that market is bullish. Correction is needed in order for market to push itself anew 6600 level.

--> Good sell on LTG when it was at 19ish, it is today down big time to 18.46...

-->B2 Gold closed at 3.33, I hate how MACD looks like, I wish the Golden Cross will peak to 5.00!

--> COL offers seminar to Filipino investors. 

I wondered why ATLAS Mining is there, a colleague of mine sent me this: SM diversifies to mining; Sy holding company invests $142.2M in Atlas (antagal na pala, 2011)

--> I renewed my driver's license this morning. The process was fast and smooth. No drug test, no long line. Total cost was around 500 and 75 was for late renewal. Also, I found out that you could renew your license strictly 2 months before expiring date. I was done in just 30 mins. Another thing, the sleeve plastic case costs a mind boggling 35 pesos, please take note. I will just reuse my old one.

--> San Mig Coffee's first game and first win last night. Bench provided needed lift in order to limit starters leg who were still tired from last conference's finals. Ian Sangalang proved to be a good fit on Tim Cone's triangle. He's such a good passer and he's offensive skill set can be argued to Slaughter's. It was a good game capped by Melton's reverse dunk.

--> Spurs 48-16. Aggressive defense and good ball rotation. Kawhi Leonard has the most minutes, I think he's now their primary lock down defender after Bruce Bowen. Last 18 games before playoffs. Dallas Mavericks should be a good #8 seed if ever Spurs can get top seed. I prefer these veterans over the young and uptempo style of Phoenix Suns. Let's preserve those legs.

Trade Notes

The MER experiment (expert trader+weekly chart)

I bot MER. Last night, I read an article by expert Faceless Trader about MER's breakout. It was a good read and I believe it is true. And one way to learn again is to buy the stock and see what happens.

MER has been plagued with issues connected to their increase in distribution charge caused by the power shortage during typhoon Yolanda. Of course this is negative for MER, but Tech Analysis may give us a clue on its price action.

Fig. 1 MER Daily Chart courtesy of COLFinancial

The lines were originally drawn by Faceless Trader. Breakout at 275, forming a flag then which level do you think it will go up? Buyers are still in command but MACD losing steam. A trader maybe wary on his/her entry, but looking at the weekly chart below suggests something.

Fig. 2 MER Weekly Chart courtesy of COLFinancial

MACD still rising, Buyers started commanding and RSI still below overbot levels. Candles still bullish and I suggest MER will break first resistance of 290ish in 2-3 weeks. Cash dividend declaration maybe due next week.

--> Good decision on selling AC and BDO as their prices plunged today. AC despite robust earnings dipped 3%.

--> As expected, many traders sold their TEL position. They might have bought it around 2500-2600 levels. I expect selling to continue until Friday just like what happened to past years during post ex divi dates.

--> Market pullback is expected in reaction to overbot levels. Next week I believe will be another test to 6600 (using weekly chart, MACD rising)

PH stock market returns below 6,500-mark
No black sand mining in Ilocos Region - MGB
Jollibee to open stores in Indonesia, Canada this year ikaw na talaga Jollibee!

Current Port:

Fig. 3 My Portfolio
courtesy of COLFinancial

Walang Konek sa Stocks Part:

--> Need to renew PRC and Driver's License, nalaman kong expired na mareject after hingian ako ng ID. Pwede pa ba sa SM ang PRC? (ok lang muka man daw akong 18 pa hihihi)

-->Finally, signing of my BDO Home Loan on Friday. Parang kailan lang...

--> Need to trim down weight, 80 level na naman, dami chocolate dito sa bahay

--> Spurs 47-16, we can be champions this year

--> Balik site na naman sa Tues...

Trade Notes

Today I have a little bit of cleaning my port. I finally decided to dump my long term AC and BDO and have TEL instead. I made some calculations last night and came about TEL giving me hefty cash dividends compared to combined AC and BDO.

TEL has an ex-div date of March 13 and a declared 116pesos/sh is enough to satisfy my curiosity and pocket. It was a fast turn of events where I was keen on getting TEL. AC and BDO expects to release 2013 results this week that may increase their current price. When we look back on their cash divi declaration last year, AC gave 2.40peso/sh semi-annual while BDO gave 0.30peso/sh per quarter. TEL on the other hand will give an intial 116peso/share (regular and special) while another ~66peso/share come August.

To have a better view, just an example at their current prices, if you have P100,000 budget:
AC @ 575/sh --> 174 shares*
BDO @ 84/sh --> 1,190 shares*
TEL @ 2800/sh --> 35 shares*

*-fees and other charges not applied for simplification, boardlot was not taken account as well

Total Cash Divi you'll get based on what I mentioned above:
AC = 835 pesos
BDO = 1,428 pesos
TEL = 6,370 pesos 

Even if TEL is more expensive per share and difficult to average down, I guess the cash dividends that they give every year is enough to make you feel satisfied. TEL also is a leader and GLO is only its competition. It has good fundamentals and and FV of 3,200. Making this a long term compared to AC and BDO (which are both laggard now) is a good choice. I also consulted my peers and they seem to agree on what I'm thinking.

Also, I sold AC @ 4%, while BDO @ 8%. I held this since July (9 months) and averaged down whenever there's an opportunity.

Another stock I sold today was LTG @ 6%. This is my 4th time with Kapitan and I'm loving every trade I do with this stock.

Now my current port consists of TEL(-0.7%), PX(-3%) and the very stuck LCB (-13%).

I still have available budget and thinking of letting go LCB to have enough position when doing short term trading. I know it's hard to accept this -13% but I think I have improved my decision points ever since. And compared to PX, it has no significant price action and no catalyst that will excite other traders, not unless gold spikes to 1600/oz.

Other than that, below are my trade results (ave 4.5% gain).

I still need to improve my exit as very evident on URC and COSCO which both went up (URC all time high) when I thought that it was about to pull back. Entry levels were good as I chose oversold levels and signs of bouncing esp MACD is very evident. Watching the overall market trend helps however one stock which is LTG most of the time bucks the trend.

Since I also do not have much time doing the same format of my trend notes when I was starting, I guess I will be putting more emphasis on what I have done, what's on my mind and my watchlist.