Monday, January 20, 2014

My 2014 Sector Guide

Disclaimer: All information was provided by COLFinancial Research Team

Property>Telecom>Banking>Consumer>Power 

Property Sector Outlook: Still on solid footing

  • Demand for residential properties to remain strong despite higher interest rates
  • Weaker peso positive for office and commercial leasing
  • Revenue growth secured by strong historical take up sales and expansion of leasing portfolios
  • Lanbank for expansion already in place
  • Valuations revert back to mean
  • Top Pick/s: ALI @ 36.08 and MEG @ 4.54

Telecom Sector Outlook: Slow and Steady Growth

  • Pricing competition has subdued
  • Postpaid still has room to grow (also broadband revenues)
  • Completed modernization programs to reduce cost
  • Upcoming third player not yet a concern (ABS Mobile)
  • Top Pick/s: TEL (FV @ 3,260)


Banking Sector Outlook: Risks already priced in

  • Trading gains to decline (unfavorable trading environment)
  • Possible spike in interest rates pose further threat
  • Banks may need to raise capital ahead of additional BSP requirements
  • Risks mostly priced in at current valuations
  • Core businesses to continue growth
  • Top Pick/s: BDO and MBT

Consumer Sector Outlook: Continued outperformance not expected

  • Decelerating factors: post election, higher inflation (rise of commodity price) and peso depreciation
  • Revenue growth to normalize, coming from a high base in 2013
  • Expecting limited improvement in margins
  • Valuations unattractive (PE at 26.8x)
  • Top Pick/s: Only buy URC @ 101, JFC @ 110 and PGOLD @ 36

Power Sector Outlook: Expecting a quiet year

  • Power rates to remain stable
  • Ancillary service revenue for hydro plants to remain depressed
  • No significant increase in capacity to come on line
  • Meralco to enjoy added earnings contribution from retail electricity supply under open 
  • access
  • Valuations not yet compelling
  • Top Pick/s: 




No comments:

Post a Comment