Tuesday, January 21, 2014

Stock Charts: AC, BDO, LCB, PX and B2 Gold

Fig. 1 AC Stock Chart courtesy of COLFinancial

AC trying to break resistance at 540 then 50MA. Plenty of room to go up as MACD indicates. Profit taking might occur as STS is overbought. Accumulate is an option as market has breached the 6,000 level already.


Fig. 2 BDO Stock Chart courtesy of COLFinancial

BDO trying to break resistance at 73 then 50MA. Plenty of room to go up as MACD indicates (about to cross the centerline). Profit taking might occur as STS is overbought. Accumulate is an option as market has breached the 6,000 level already.

Fig. 3 LCB Stock Chart courtesy of COLFinancial

LCB already broke 50MA. MACD good sign of continuing upward momentum. Profit taking might occur as STS and RSI are overbought. The resurgence of mining stocks is confirmed by the DMI line pointing up.


Fig. 4 PX Stock Chart courtesy of COLFinancial

PX, like LCB, already broke 50MA (3rd time). MACD good sign of continuing upward momentum. Profit taking might occur as STS is overbought. The resurgence of mining stocks is confirmed by the DMI line pointing up. Clearly a buy!


Fig. 5 B2 Gold Stock Chart courtesy of stockcharts.com

For the past few days, B2 Gold broke its 50 and 200SMA. MACD good sign of continuing upward momentum (rally is evident). Profit taking might occur as RSI is overbought. Bullish long candles matched by hefty volume clearly signals a buy!


Fig. 6 Gold Price Chart courtesy of kitco.com

Gold price action from 1220ish to 1250ish.

Monday, January 20, 2014

Stock Chart: URC and LTG

Why SELL?

Fig. 1 URC Stock Chart courtesy of COLFinancial

I sold URC at 120 which is 1.53% gain. I could have sold it when it was at 123 but greed set in. I continued waiting for it to go up again but the Fed Tapering and Typhoon Yolanda issues battered the whole stock market. I did not averaged down as I allotted it to my long term chips. Come New Year, the market was slowly creeping up but it was not enough as I was still on paper loss. I saw an opportunity when it reached at 120 and saw a big green candle. It was overbought already as per STS and DMI was pointing down. Technical indicators really helped but another thing that convinced me was the Consumer Outlook done by COLFinancial.

 URC is already unattractive, only buy below 101/sh. Although minimal gains, profit is profit and it is better to put the money on a faster horse. :) But still, thank you URC.


Fig. 2 LTG Stock Chart courtesy of COLFinancial

I sold LTG at 17.20 which is 4.45%. This is my 3rd time with LTG (all gains) and this trade was my biggest so far. When I bought it, indicators suggest a reversal soon, however due to Fed Tapering and typhoon Yolanda, the whole market was battered. It was until last week where market was trading around 5,900 barely breaking the 6000th mark, LTG showed signs of life. Then last Friday, I just placed my sell order waiting to be hit.

Now, LTG is overbought and obviously, traders will take profits. I will watch first on the sidelines until a confirmed break through at 6,000 or yet another pullback to avoid any emotional entry rather make it a wise one. Thank you, LTG.

These are my first trades of the year and hopefully will get better everytime. Target for the year is 10-15% gain :)

My 2014 Sector Guide

Disclaimer: All information was provided by COLFinancial Research Team

Property>Telecom>Banking>Consumer>Power 

Property Sector Outlook: Still on solid footing

  • Demand for residential properties to remain strong despite higher interest rates
  • Weaker peso positive for office and commercial leasing
  • Revenue growth secured by strong historical take up sales and expansion of leasing portfolios
  • Lanbank for expansion already in place
  • Valuations revert back to mean
  • Top Pick/s: ALI @ 36.08 and MEG @ 4.54

Telecom Sector Outlook: Slow and Steady Growth

  • Pricing competition has subdued
  • Postpaid still has room to grow (also broadband revenues)
  • Completed modernization programs to reduce cost
  • Upcoming third player not yet a concern (ABS Mobile)
  • Top Pick/s: TEL (FV @ 3,260)


Banking Sector Outlook: Risks already priced in

  • Trading gains to decline (unfavorable trading environment)
  • Possible spike in interest rates pose further threat
  • Banks may need to raise capital ahead of additional BSP requirements
  • Risks mostly priced in at current valuations
  • Core businesses to continue growth
  • Top Pick/s: BDO and MBT

Consumer Sector Outlook: Continued outperformance not expected

  • Decelerating factors: post election, higher inflation (rise of commodity price) and peso depreciation
  • Revenue growth to normalize, coming from a high base in 2013
  • Expecting limited improvement in margins
  • Valuations unattractive (PE at 26.8x)
  • Top Pick/s: Only buy URC @ 101, JFC @ 110 and PGOLD @ 36

Power Sector Outlook: Expecting a quiet year

  • Power rates to remain stable
  • Ancillary service revenue for hydro plants to remain depressed
  • No significant increase in capacity to come on line
  • Meralco to enjoy added earnings contribution from retail electricity supply under open 
  • access
  • Valuations not yet compelling
  • Top Pick/s: 




Sunday, January 19, 2014

Baklad Update 2

New year, new set up.

After a dismal start, we're off to a fresh start this year. Hopefully this time there will be less of business unrelated problems, hehe. We managed to hire a new manager, and he is no other than our driver. After the family rift, he stepped up and was willing to help us so we gave him our approval. He hired an operator which is a friend of him.

The previous 50/50 sharing is now 50/25/25. We had a run of good catches already however we spent it on repairing bamboos that were broken during the wrath of typhoon Yolanda. Also we bought already a small boat only at 1k, ayos! Long term improvements are converting the bamboos to bigger/thicker ones. (take note this should have been done on the start, but enough of the past) and possible relocation of the baklad to more strategic location.

Aside from that no other issues were brought up during our discussions. Now we are roughly 30% on our ROI (return of investment). Slowly but surely we will get there. It has been 5 months now since we started.

Photo updates of our baklad and the new boat will be posted soon once I get back onsite.

P.S. Mudcrab business still on hold. SEAFDEC seminar will be sometime on June-July. According to horoscope, aquatic businesses will favor the Pisces Zodiac this 2014, hehehe

Weekend News


Happy Weekend!!!

By the way, Alaska won over Barako Bull forcing a do-or-die game tomorrow against Meralco. Abueva and Dillinger will meet again after their scuffle. Winner will face #1 Ginebra. I go for my teams Ginebra vs. San Mig Coffee during Finals. :) (will watch a playoff game before going back onsite)

Also meet my new babies...

play hard, beat hard...
Sapatos na lang kulang...

Saturday, January 18, 2014

Trade Notes

What happened today?

courtesy of COLFinancial





Now that holidays are over, we're back to business as usual. Did we learn anything from last year's trading? Yes of course! This year will be an exciting one to follow and execute your own trading plans. Use of charts was very helpful!

My average trading gains was at 4.17% while losses at 2.63%. 11 out of 14 trades were successful. Trades included favorite LTG, ALI, MPI, URC, SM, EDC to name a few. I still have paper losses on my long term stocks amd it sucks. hehe

My target this year is to have 10-15% trading gains.

For the next few days I will be posting on 2014 sector forecast c/o COLFinancial, Chart updates, Baklad and Gastrolith updates.

Oh by the way, I'm into badminton now and playing music again. I'll try to have a meaningful and healthy 2014.

Surpass yourself! :)


Cheers!

Cash Divi BDO and AC

Got my dividends from BDO and AC. Did you get yours?

For 2013, BDO's cash divi is quarterly at 0.30/share while AC is semi-annually at 2.40/share :)

Kailan kaya ang Philex?