Stock Divi MBT Part 4

The phases below was supposedly for the SRO and can be found on the BDO thread at Finance Manila here. I tried to correlate if this is applicable to the stock dividend and below are my observations.
For further analysis. :)

Phases 1-4 are indicated below.

Phase 1 - Price goes down upon disclosure of 30% stock divi
Phase 2 - Selling continues
Phase 3 - Oversold level indicate buying before ex date
Phase 4 - Increase in price due to buying pressure before ex date
Phase 5?? - Depends on market behavior i.e. QE tapering -> Syria Tension -> No FED Tapering

For comments and suggestions :)

Fig. 1 MBT Stock Chart with relevant dates pre/post 30% stock dividend release
courtesy of COLFinancial